So far TS Fay has frustrated forecasters since her birth over a week ago. Now she is no exception. They believed she would leave the state near Daytona or Jacksonville. Now it looks like she will be exiting the state over 100 miles from previously forecasted, now it is exiting well south of Melbourne. They said she would weaken and become disorganized over land, but instead she became better organized. Just a couple ago she began feeling the effects of the eye being over land, but because her outflow is very impressive and because she is getting ready to exit, she will restrengthen very rapidly.

Now with great confidence the local forecasters, the Weather Channel forecasters and most of the NHC forecasters have indicated they believe the storm will re-enter Florida and then proceed West Northwest into GA/AL. I would however challenge them to look at the models closely. If you look at the computer models which we have had on our site for days the tracks that have pretty consistently followed the storm since yesterday has been the BAMM and AENM model. Both of these put the storm re-entering the state and tracking back West which will bring the storm very close to the Tampa Bay area.

I would not discount anything until Fay is finally gone. She has been very unpredictable and I think she still has a few surprises under her hat.

This is just my opinion though so it doesn’t really mean anything, but I get tired of forecasters talking about these storms like they are predictable. One of the NHC forecasters I really respect is Avila. He understands that weather is a fickle creature and just when you think you have it figured out, it can throw you a curve ball.

To check out the models yourself visit HERE, weigh in your opinion if you like.