Every year we take time to point out weather conditions that may affect the Florida surf. This Hurricane season is no exception. Most of the information I go by comes from a guy named Rob Lightbrown over at Crown Weather Services. As with any forecast it is a best guess, but this guy has an awesome track record. We currently have two weather systems that are churning out in the sub-tropical Atlantic, Invest 92-L and 93-L. This guy deserves major props for all the work he does in the name of public safety. Visit his site and give him some love for the hard work he does.

Here is his Tropical Discussion for Today. All interests and surfers in Florida will want to pay attention to this:

Invest 92-L: Invest 92-L is located early this morning about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Satellite imagery indicated that this system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms with no real area of concentrated thunderstorm activity, as of this writing. Environmental conditions continue to appear that they will be favorable for development for the next few days and I do think this system, even though it is disorganized right now, will become a tropical depression later this week. I’m just not convinced that it will be declared a tropical depression today, but perhaps more likely on Thursday or Friday.

The latest track model guidance indicates that Invest 92-L should remain on a west-northwest course over the next couple of days and then potentially bend back to the west by this weekend. The model consensus is for 92-L to track about 150 miles north of the northern Leeward Island, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday night and Friday. This model forecast track continues to threaten the southeastern Bahamas this weekend.

The reason for the lack of development thus far with Invest 92-L appears to be caused by fairly strong shear over the northern part of the system and also by dry air being entrained into the system from the south. All indications are that this system will continue to have problems developing today and possibly even on Thursday. However, by Thursday night and especially on Friday, Invest 92-L will move into an area of strong high pressure and begin heading west as the track model guidance suggests.

This type of scenario is fairly classic and typically systems that track back to the west under a high pressure system ends up strengthening and I think this will be the case here. Therefore, I expect little or no development today and possibly even on Thursday. After that, if this disturbance maintains its circulation, I think we will see the disturbance gaining organization on Friday and continuing through this weekend as it turns west under the ridge of high pressure. I foresee slow intensification on Friday with perhaps more steady intensification this weekend, so it is not out of the question to see a strong tropical storm or a minimal hurricane near the southeastern Bahamas by late Sunday. This scenario is well depicted in the latest NAM model. Most of the intensity models forecast this system to be a hurricane by this weekend. All interests in the Bahamas and in Florida should keep a very close eye on this system.

I found the latest European model particularly interesting as it goes along the overall synoptic idea of a system turning west under a building high pressure system. The Euro model holds off on intensifying this system until Monday when the model forecasts it will be just west of Andros Island in the Bahamas. After that, the Euro model forecasts rapid intensification on Tuesday and Wednesday as it turns northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and comes ashore in the Florida Panhandle next Thursday.

One other thought with 92-L is that the further west this system gets, the closer it gets to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse that is coming east. This means that Invest 92-L may wait to develop until it is closer to the Bahamas and Florida due partially to the MJO pulse.

My final notation with 92-L is that currently it appears like it wants to dissipate and I really do not think that is going to happen. I think this system will not develop until it is past 60 West Longitude or so (Which should occur later Thursday) and then it will develop and organize.

Folks in the Bahamas and in Florida should pay close attention to the progress of Invest 92-L.

Invest 93-L: Invest 93-L is a low pressure area that is located about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery early this morning indicates that there has been an increase in thunderstorm activity over the past few hours and if this thunderstorm activity can hold and consolidate some more, then this system may become a tropical depression by tomorrow or Friday. As for a track, the track model guidance is forecasting a track that should keep this system well east of the Lesser Antilles. In fact, most of the track models do not track 93-L past 60 West Longitude.

To me, Invest 92-L is the bigger threat of the two Invests out there. All interests in the Bahamas and in Florida should pay close attention to the progress of Invest 92-L. As of this writing, I think 92-L will pass about 150 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday night and Friday. The threat from 92-L to the southeastern Bahamas may come around Saturday night and Sunday with a potential threat to Florida around Tuesday of next week. In addition, there is a possible threat to the eastern Gulf of Mexico around next Wednesday and Thursday.

I will be monitoring everything related to this and I will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Thursday morning.